Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 1.762321 1.836814 1.915003 2.003601 2.101731 2.207714 2.331699
2025-11-16 1.670344 1.766498 1.870832 1.993554 2.135467 2.296399 2.495738
2025-11-23 1.603468 1.713125 1.834951 1.982235 2.158250 2.365776 2.635515
2025-11-30 1.562178 1.683473 1.820987 1.991305 2.201030 2.457566 2.807318
2025-12-07 1.498680 1.623649 1.767125 1.947575 2.174145 2.458203 2.858608
2025-12-14 1.460128 1.590537 1.742222 1.936097 2.184658 2.504852 2.973669
2025-12-21 1.422514 1.556450 1.713907 1.917875 2.184035 2.535066 3.066891
2025-12-28 1.407171 1.548047 1.715855 1.936911 2.231953 2.633270 3.270273
2026-01-04 1.397913 1.546257 1.725324 1.965314 2.293314 2.754639 3.526741
2026-01-11 1.374585 1.526044 1.710529 1.960734 2.308440 2.809437 3.682174
2026-01-18 1.356695 1.511807 1.702489 1.964290 2.334533 2.882047 3.879553
2026-01-25 1.323036 1.476736 1.666459 1.928381 2.301752 2.860571 3.900709
2026-02-01 1.300971 1.456359 1.649564 1.918937 2.308489 2.904555 4.059926
2026-02-08 1.281338 1.438403 1.635066 1.911897 2.317945 2.953220 4.237945
2026-02-15 1.262054 1.420287 1.619653 1.902722 2.323317 2.995115 4.410697
2026-02-22 1.251134 1.412484 1.617414 1.911655 2.356339 3.086666 4.717367
2026-03-01 1.222012 1.380446 1.581981 1.871972 2.311686 3.037839 4.678550
2026-03-08 1.205416 1.364304 1.567399 1.861634 2.312511 3.070430 4.851206
2026-03-15 1.187231 1.345677 1.548958 1.845010 2.302387 3.082028 4.973003
2026-03-22 1.182529 1.344518 1.553995 1.862542 2.347809 3.201162 5.431407
2026-03-29 1.181081 1.347518 1.564660 1.888618 2.408704 3.357799 6.089138
2026-04-05 1.169106 1.336261 1.555353 1.884440 2.418622 3.413556 6.445347
2026-04-12 1.160191 1.328864 1.551150 1.887709 2.441261 3.498262 6.967453